Insights

Insight 317: Hydrological and Transboundary Challenges of the Aras River

Pourya Nabipour & Neda Beirami
- March 18, 2025

Series Introduction

Climate-induced Security Challenges

Climate change – e.g., rising temperatures, rising sea levels, more frequent and intense extreme weather events – not only aggravates existing vulnerabilities such as food and water insecurity but can also lead to heightened competition over diminishing natural resources, widespread displacement, increased societal tensions and conflict.

While science has been unequivocal about the physical impacts of climate change, scientific evidence to support its link to security risks is tenuous. Understanding climate-induced security challenges is crucial, particularly for countries most exposed to climate change impacts. By providing evidence-based perspectives to improve our understanding of climate-induced security risks, this Insight series aims to generate insights that support crafting strategies to mitigate such risks.

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This study examines the impact of hydrological changes in the Aras River basin on transboundary relations between Iran and Azerbaijan. Analysis of climate data from satellite imagery by the US Geological Survey identified significant reductions in vegetation and soil cover around the basin in both Iran and Azerbaijan between 2018 and 2024, coupled with minimal increases in water bodies. These findings indicate declining water availability, threatening the sustainability of agriculture and rural livelihoods. This study demonstrates that by intensifying existing rivalries over resource allocation and governance, such climate-driven pressures exacerbate geopolitical tensions.

Image Caption: Aras River, showing Iran to the left (including Kasiri island) and Azerbaijan to the right. Photo: M Karzari, under a creative commons licence, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Jolfa-Aras2.jpg.

About the Authors

*Dr Pourya Nabipour holds a PhD in Political Science and International Studies from the University of Birmingham. His research focuses on Iran’s national identity and its influence on nuclear policy, with interest in energy security and Middle Eastern politics.

**Ms Neda Beirami holds an M.Sc. in Water and Hydraulic Structures from the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Amirkabir University of Technology in Iran. Her research interests include hydraulics, flood management, water management and sediment transportation.