The past five years have witnessed tremendous changes in Saudi Arabia affecting the line of royal succession, the business class, the religious establishment and the social scene. This webinar will explain the significance of these changes, in the context of the kingdom’s foundation and how religion and political power became inseparable entities for decades. The discovery of oil played a major role in transforming the country and elevating its role in the international scene.
In addition, its religious significance, being the land of Islam’s two holy sites, has allowed it to influence Muslims and promote its own teaching of religion. However, the past five years have drastically changed many of the long-established traditions and policies, especially regarding the kingdom’s relationship with the religious establishment. The rise of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and his interest in diversifying the economy to implement “Vision 2030” are the main reasons for the drastic changes that are taking place today.
Speaker: Ms Eman Alhussein, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Eman Alhussein is a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. Her research focuses on Saudi Arabia and the Gulf region. Ms Alhussein was previously a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a research fellow at King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. She holds a MA in Gulf Studies from the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies at the University of Exeter. She is currently based in Oslo, Norway.
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A summary of Session 3’s proceedings can be found below.
Bridging the Gulf Session 3: Beyond Oil and Dates: Saudi Arabia’s Past, Transition and Future
By Ilyas Salim, Research Assistant, Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore
A Brief History of Saudi Arabia: From Muhammad bin Saud to King Salman
To understand the significance of the changes sweeping Saudi Arabia today, it is helpful to look to its history. The Saudi state emerged out of an alliance between the religious scholar Muhammad bin Abd al-Wahhab and the political chief Muhammad bin Saud (the founder of the Saud dynasty). This alliance was vital in starting a division of labour between the religious and political spheres that continues to characterise the kingdom today. The expansion of the first Saudi state was ultimately curbed by the Ottoman empire and the second Saudi state existing between 1824 and 1891, was plagued by internal family rivalries leading to its downfall.
The third Saudi state was formed when the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was declared by King Abdulaziz bin Abdul Rahman Al Saud in 1932. While the British played a significant role in the expansion of the state, their influence began to dwindle due to their reluctance to prospect for oil in the kingdom, paving the way for an agreement on oil rights to be signed in 1933 with the US instead. This marked the beginning of the increasing American influence within the kingdom.
King Abdulaziz was followed by his son Saud but his tenure was beset with financial problems and he was pressured to abdicate the throne in favour of his half-brother Faisal. King Faisal’s reign is notable for the sweeping economic and social reforms he undertook in modernising the kingdom and developing its economic infrastructure. He is especially known for leading an oil embargo in protest of Western support for Israel — the increased oil prices allowed Saudi to enter into an oil boom. He also introduced education for girls at a time when it was frowned upon and fostered a pan-Islamic policy to counter growing pan-Arabism at the time.
In 1975 King Faisal was succeeded by his half-brother Khalid, whose tenure oversaw several dramatic incidents including the siege of Mecca by insurgents, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the Iranian Revolution. However, the domestic and regional impact of these events materialised fully only during the tenure of King Fahd, who succeeded his half-brother. Under King Fahd, Saudi citizens, for the first time, experienced austerity measures implemented to mitigate the impact of a severe crash in oil prices. King Fahd’s era also witnessed a number of pivotal events including the height of the Sahwa movement, the Gulf War, the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the subsequent US invasion of Iraq.
King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, already an influential statesman during his brother Fahd’s reign, took over the throne in 2005. King Abdullah was a key figure in nurturing nationalism within Saudi Arabia and his leadership was marked by a few significant social and political reforms. Under his rule, Saudi’s national day was made a public holiday to be celebrated in September despite the objections of many within the religious establishment. His also initiated a number of key social reforms that opened up the scope of religious discourse which had been stagnant since 1980s as little room for religious debate was allowed then. This in turn allowed Saudi intellectuals to participate in countering certain assumptions and religious beliefs and overall, contributed to the greater visibility of women in society. King Abdullah also started a national dialogue in 2003 which was important in encouraging discussions between the various sectarian and social segments of society on various topics. His social reforms, which aided in increasing the visibility of women in the kingdom’s conservative society, have proved influential, inviting comparisons to the reformist programmes of his grandson Mohammed bin Salman, the current crown prince of Saudi Arabia.
King Abdullah was succeeded by his half-brother Salman, whose reign is often seen as a transitional period as it allowed the second generation of Saudi royalty to enter the line of succession. King Salman oversaw a major restructuring of government bodies in 2015 and Saudi’s foreign policy became more assertive under his leadership, as seen for instance, in the launch of the war in Yemen. In 2015, Saudi reluctantly witnessed the signing of a nuclear agreement between their regional rival Iran and the Obama administration. Nevertheless, Saudi–US relations also become closer during this period, especially during the Trump administration.
Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman: The “Fourth Saudi State”
All these bring us to the current Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (popularly known as MBS), who was made the de facto ruler of the kingdom in 2017 after his father King Abdullah relieved the heir apparent Muhammad bin Nayef from all political positions. Envisioning a post-oil economy, the crown prince launched Saudi Vision 2030 in 2016, an exceedingly ambitious programme which sought to reduce the kingdom’s dependence on energy exports. A key aspect of Vision 2030 includes the development of mega projects intended to cultivate Saudi’s tourism and entertainment sector and to attract foreign investment. One such project is “The Line” –
a futuristic and environmentally sustainable 170km-long city with no cars and featuring urban services driven by artificial intelligence. The crown prince’s reforms have also led to increased opportunities for women to enter the workforce. The sheer sweep of the reforms has been extensive enough for observers to speculate on whether a fourth Saudi state had emerged.
Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s drastic reforms have unsurprisingly ruffled feathers within the conservative religious sector. While King Abdulaziz relied on allegiances and the loyalty of the diverse elements within the kingdom to gain support for reforms, the crown prince has instead opted to centralise power around himself, moving to curb dissenting voices within Saudi’s religious police. This has drawn both praise and criticism, leading to the partial erosion of the traditional religious–political alliance that has characterised the kingdom. Under the crown prince, Saudi has recently attempted to foster a moderate Islam approach with an emphasis on religious tolerance. Observers have interpreted the push for moderate Islam variously as a bulwark against political Islam, a conduit for the transmission of soft power to the Muslim world and an appeal to prospective Muslim tourists.
The Future of the Kingdom
Saudi Vision 2030 has set the tone for the future of the kingdom and the mega projects embodied within the programme have provoked both awe and skepticism in equal measure, with critics pointing ominously to similar projects initiated and subsequently abandoned during the reign of King Abdullah. Saudi has to also contend with regional competition with other Gulf countries who are themselves in the process of diversifying their economies away from oil.
Local unemployment continues to be a central issue within the kingdom with the rate soaring to 15% last year. This has been in part a consequence of the oil boom during King Faisal’s era which resulted in a huge influx of foreign workers. Job creation has thus been a key tenet of the crown prince’s Vision 2030 and Saudi has attempted to nationalise jobs to lower the unemployment rate. Nevertheless, the private sector remains reluctant to employ locals as foreign labour represents a much cheaper option.
The cultivation of the tourism sector is another key objective for the kingdom and the state has pushed to increase Saudi Arabia’s appeal not only to foreign tourists but local ones as well, especially given the slowdown of global travel due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Additionally, while the crown prince’s social reforms have enabled greater social relaxation within the kingdom, they have also widened the disparities between citizens living in cities and rural areas – the latter of whom tend to remain more conservative.
