Insights

Insight 314: Threat Multiplier

Gina Bou Serhal, Serhat S. Çubukçuoğlu and Abdulla Alkhaja
- January 14, 2025

Series Introduction

Climate-induced Security Challenges

Climate change – e.g., rising temperatures, rising sea levels, more frequent and intense extreme weather events – not only aggravates existing vulnerabilities such as food and water insecurity but can also lead to heightened competition over diminishing natural resources, widespread displacement, increased societal tensions and conflict.

While science has been unequivocal about the physical impacts of climate change, scientific evidence to support its link to security risks is tenuous. Understanding climate-induced security challenges is crucial, particularly for countries most exposed to climate change impacts. By providing evidence-based perspectives to improve our understanding of climate-induced security risks, this Insight series aims to generate insights that support crafting strategies to mitigate such risks.

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In Syria and Yemen, two Middle Eastern nations highly vulnerable to environmental and sociopolitical pressures, climate change has intensified water scarcity, agricultural collapse and migration, exacerbating pre-existing tensions. In Syria, drought-induced rural migration fuelled urban discontent, contributing to the 2011 uprising. Yemen, facing severe water shortages and resource weaponisation, has seen heightened tribal and sectarian tensions, which have left it in a permanent state of chaos.

Image Caption: Yemenis fill their jerrycans with water from a well at a makeshift camp for people who fled fighting between Huthi rebels and the Saudi-backed government forces, in the village of Hays in Yemen’s western province of Hodeida, on 17 May 2022. Photo: AFP

About the Authors

* Mr Abdullah AlKhaja is an Emirati research assistant at TRENDS Research & Advisory in Abu Dhabi, UAE. With a strong background in Middle East geopolitics, he obtained his bachelor’s degree in international relations from the University of Sharjah. His research interests include US foreign policy, international humanitarian aid and climate-induced crises.

* Ms Gina Bou Serhal is a Senior Researcher in the Strategic Studies Department at TRENDS Research & Advisory in Dubai, UAE. She holds a master’s degree with high distinction in diplomacy and international affairs from Zayed University in Abu Dhabi. As an American expatriate living in the Gulf, Gina’s analysis of Middle East geopolitics is enriched by her strong interest in US politics and foreign policy and her expertise in global trends.

* Dr Serhat Süha Çubukçuoğlu is a Senior Researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory in Abu Dhabi, UAE, as well as an advisory board member in energy geopolitics and maritime security at Koç University’s Maritime Forum (KÜDENFOR) in Istanbul, Turkey. He is a geopolitical strategist working at the intersection of policy analysis, consultancy and media. With 20 years of experience across four continents, his expertise is in policy-oriented qualitative research and advisory, focusing on the Middle East. Dr Serhat obtained his doctorate in international affairs from Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, DC, USA.