COP 27 and Climate Action In The Middle East

 

 

Geoclimatic conditions — high temperatures, low precipitation levels and a terrain marked mostly by deserts — have long threatened water supply in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates). Population and urbanisation growth rates in these countries are among the world’s highest, which, coupled with rapidly changing lifestyles and consumption patterns, have led to escalating rates of water demand. Overcoming the depletion of natural water sources to meet these ever-increasing demands entails increasing financial, economic, and environmental costs.

Under these stressed water conditions, global climate change and climate variability are expected to add a major incremental stress on the water management systems of these countries. International, regional and national assessments of the impacts of climate change on the region’s water sector[1] indicate that increasing temperatures, a general decrease in precipitation, rising sea levels and the increasing frequency of floods and droughts will increase the vulnerability of the GCC countries’ water resources. Decreasing precipitation will reduce surface water resources and groundwater recharge, sea level rise will result in deterioration in the quality of coastal aquifers, and the rise in temperature will increase agricultural and municipal water demands. In short, climate change will exacerbate the current water scarcity in the GCC countries and increase the costs associated with producing water.

However, while climate change presents an additional challenge to the sustainability of the water management system,[2] it also presents an opportunity for the GCC countries to establish efficient and resilient approaches to cope with future water shortages while also fulfilling their emissions reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement (PA) through more energy-efficient means of producing water.[3]

This article addresses the climate change impacts on the water sector in the GCC countries and discusses the adaptation measures the various governments have proposed to adopt. It attempts to identify key gaps as well as key opportunities for a sustainable water management system in the GCC.

 

Major Water Challenges

The key water challenges in the GCC countries are growing water scarcity,[4] continuous depletion and degradation of the region’s groundwater resources, and the increasing financial, economic and environmental costs associated with reliance on non-conventional water resources, namely through desalination, to compensate for the water shortage caused by rapidly increasing demand. These challenges are expected to grow with time if the current internal and external driving forces of the water sector continue into the future. Internal driving forces include generally low water efficiencies in supply and end use and inadequate recycling and limited reuse, while external driving forces include rapid population and urbanisation growth rates, the prevailing general subsidy system and increasing food demands. Climate change and variability are expected to act as additional driving forces that would put more stress on the current water management system and would increase its vulnerability.

Supply and Demand

By 2019, all the GCC countries had achieved almost 100% access to safe and affordable drinking water for their populations.[5] Yet, in terms of freshwater resources, the GCC countries have one of the lowest per capita shares globally, with values much below the 500 cubic metres per year threshold of absolute water scarcity. Average per capita freshwater availability in 2020 was calculated at less than 90 cubic metres per year.[6] (Figure 1.)

The agricultural sector accounts for the highest water usage in the GCC countries, utilising nearly 80% of available water resources. This is followed by the municipal sector, which supplies households, and finally the industrial sector, which consumes only about 3%. (Figure 2 shows the main water use sectors as well as the main water sources utilised in meeting various water requirements.) To meet water demands in the municipal sector, the GCC countries have been heavily relying on desalination, which is made possible by their strong economies and substantial financial and energy resources. However, being energy-intensive, desalination has high negative environmental externalities. Meeting agricultural water demands is equally unsustainable in the long run. The GCC countries have been relying heavily on the extraction of groundwater resources to meet agricultural needs. But the majority of these groundwater resources are non-renewable (also known as “fossil” groundwater ),[7] while the remaining limited renewable groundwater resources are being utilised beyond their replenishment rates, leading to salinisation and deterioration in quality.[8]

 

Meeting Municipal Water Demands

Due to limited natural water resources and the rapid growth in population, urbanisation and various socio-economic activities, desalination is expected to play an ever-increasing role in the water supply portfolio in the region. Currently, all the GCC countries are embarking on major desalination expansion projects (Figure 3). Collectively, the GCC countries have more than 45% of the world’s desalination capacity, a percentage expected to increase in the future.[9]

However, municipal water supply and desalination entail enormous costs, manifested in:

• the costs of energy (oil and gas) required for desalination of water[10] (including its opportunity costs);
• financial and energy/electricity costs at every stage in the operation of the water cycle system (i.e., production, transmission and distribution); and
• environmental costs in terms of (i) the thermal brine discharged by desalination plants onto the surrounding coastal and marine environment, and (ii) air pollution caused by burning fossil fuels and its impact on human health and the environment as well as its contribution to greenhouse gas (GhG) emissions.[11]

Moreover, there are other externalities related to municipal water consumption_­­, the most important of which are the increasing volumes of wastewater generated, the financial and energy costs of the wastewater treatment process, and the seasonal carryover volumes of untreated/partially treated wastewater discharged onto the coastal and marine environment.

In general, financial costs have increased due to two factors: (i) heavy subsidies for municipal water services and consumption, resulting in insignificant cost recovery percentages, and (ii) the high percentages of non-revenue water (NRW).[12] Given growing water demands, the future fiscal burden is likely to be substantial in the GCC countries. At the strategic level, despite the introduction of desalination in the region as early as in the 1950s, the increasing reliance on this technology in providing drinking water supply and the GCC’s significant share of world desalination capacity, the desalination industry has not matured in the region; desalination remains an imported technology. The majority of desalination plants in the GCC countries are imported from South Korea, Japan, France and Spain. The desalination industry thus provides limited added value to the economies of the GCC countries in terms of localised operations and maintenance, plant refurbishment, fabrication of key spare parts, and training of a local workforce for the industry. However, a number of government-sponsored initiatives are being introduced to localise desalination technology and reduce its financial and environmental costs (see below).

 

Rapid Depletion and Degradation of Groundwater Resources

Groundwater resources contribute to nearly 80% of the total water supply in the GCC countries and constitute the main water source for the agricultural sector (Figure 2; Figure 4 shows growing water consumption by the agricultural sector). Currently, groundwater resources are experiencing continuous water level declines and salinisation due to their overexploitation, in the case of renewable sources, and rapid mining, in the case of non-renewable sources. In addition, these resources are being polluted by numerous agricultural, industrial, and domestic activities.[13]

As the quality of groundwater deteriorates, either by overexploitation or direct pollution, its uses diminish, thereby reducing groundwater supplies and intensifying the problem of water scarcity in the region. In addition, groundwater depletion and deterioration results in the loss of sizeable strategic reserves that could be relied upon during emergencies to provide domestic water, a loss that could have dire consequences for the GCC countries’ socio-economic development, particularly in the agricultural sector, and will increase health risks.

The main drivers of overexploitation and extensive mining of groundwater are agricultural development policies aimed at achieving food self-sufficiency and/or socio-economic development that is incompatible with the region’s limited water resources. These are exacerbated by a number of unsustainable practices and conditions. Groundwater quality deterioration does not only lead to the loss of groundwater resources but also undermines the sustainability of the agricultural sector itself and hence its contribution to food security.

 

Inadequate Utilisation of Wastewater

The GCC countries have made considerable efforts to provide sanitation services by acquiring advanced treatment facilities. However, despite the relatively large volumes of wastewater generated (driven by escalating water consumption in urban areas) and treated, there is a significant mismatch between the levels of wastewater treatment and their reuse. In 2018, although the GCC countries treated most of the collected municipal wastewater, the average reuse of was only about 35% (Figure 5). In some countries, much of the treated wastewater, even after tertiary treatment to make it fit for human consumption, is discharged into the sea or elsewhere. Many factors contribute to this low level of reuse, including health risks, social reservations, and logistical/infrastructural constraints. Such low reuse rates of valuable treated wastewater represent a major lost opportunity in circumstances of growing water scarcity.

Projected Climate Change Impacts on Water and Adaptation Options

Several global and regional studies, including those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Bank, have assessed the potential impacts of climate change on water resources and the water sector in the Arab region, including the GCC region. However, the first in-depth study focused on the Arab region was conducted in 2017 by the regional Arab initiative RICCAR, which is part of the UN Economic and Social Commission for West Asia (UNESCWA).[14] RICCAR’s key finding was that temperatures in the region are increasing and are expected to increase until the end of the century. The study involved regional climate and hydrological modelling up to 2100, drawing on the IPCC’s various scenarios for emissions and concentrations of GhGs, aerosols and other gases. The modelling projected that the average mean change in temperature for one of two intermediate scenarios (known as RCP4.5) may involve an increase of 1.2^o C to 1.9^o C by mid-century. For the very high scenario (RCP8.5), temperatures may increase from 1.7^o C to 2.6^o C by mid-century. In addition, across the region until the end of the century, the number of very hot days of over 40^o C are projected to increase significantly while precipitation trends are projected to decrease.

The vulnerability of the Gulf sub-region (the central and eastern Arabian peninsula) to climate change is considered relatively moderate compared with the other Arab countries. This is partly due to the fact that the projected precipitation for the sub-region will not significantly change and to the GCC countries’ relatively high adaptive capacity in comparison with the other Arab countries. However, the financial, economic and environmental costs associated with desalination expansion are estimated to be significant.[15]

Assessments of the water sector’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change in the GCC countries are reported periodically in their Climate Change National Communication Reports to the UNFCCC[16] since 2005. In general, these reports indicate that the limited water resources in the GCC countries are under high stress due to rapid population and urbanisation growth, agricultural policies, inefficient management and irrational consumption patterns, and that these countries are facing serious challenges and increasing costs in balancing water supply with demands. The main anticipated climate change impacts are the reduction in surface runoff and groundwater recharge due to an overall reduction in precipitation, a deterioration in coastal groundwater quality due to seawater intrusion, increases in the agricultural and domestic sectors’ water demands due to temperature increases and increasing numbers of destructive events (e.g., flash floods) due to increases in extreme rainfall events.

The main climate change adaptation measures proposed in these reports can be summarised as the need to shift the focus from the supply management approach to the demand management approach to close the gap between supply and demand and to adapt to the anticipated impacts of climate change on the water sector. The recommended areas for policy action are: reducing per capita water consumption and leakage in the municipal sector distribution network, controlling agricultural water consumption by increasing irrigation efficiency, and reusing treated wastewater in the agricultural sector. These policies are intended to complement the current supply-side management policies of expanding desalination plants, dam construction, the treatment and reuse of wastewater, and artificial recharges of groundwater. The main enablers for achieving such a shift are capacity development for the water sector (institutional and individual), raising stakeholder awareness, water sector governance improvements (i.e., reforming institutional structures to ensure integrated planning and coordination within the water sector as well as among water-related sectors such as energy, agriculture and environment, and formulating and implementing a comprehensive modern water law), and private sector participation.

To focus more on the demand side, where major savings can be achieved, there are basically three types of policy instruments that can be implemented:

• structural and operational (e.g., metering, retrofitting water-saving devices, flow control, recycling);
• socio-political (e.g., education and awareness, building codes, appliances labelling); and
• economic (incentives and disincentives for consumption).

Experience has shown that combining these policy instruments to achieve the desired consumption changes is considered to be more effective as they would work to complement and reinforce one other.

The GCC countries are signatory to the PA, and their recently submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs)[17] reflect their intended policies and actions towards reducing emissions and fulfilling their PA commitments. The water sector is at the heart of their adaptation actions, and shifting towards a more sustainable management system does not only reduce the vulnerability of the sector but also helps the countries achieve their assigned emissions reduction targets under the agreed concept of adaptation with mitigation co-benefits. All the countries have formulated specific plans and actions towards attaining their allocated targets by 2030, although not all of them have been executed.

As desalination is the main energy consumer in the water cycle, reaching more than 90% of the cycle’s total energy consumption, and is the locus of most of the environmental externalities, many of the GCC countries’ adaptation initiatives have taken the form of renewable desalination to reduce desalination’s environmental and climate footprints. In addition to initiatives such as the ongoing solar-powered desalination plant projects undertaken by the UAE’s Masdar and Saudi Arabia’s King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST), it is Saudi Arabia’s renewable desalination project in NEOM City that probably represents one of the pioneering integrated initiatives in the region. The project, set to start in 2024, combines both the concepts of resource efficiency and circular economy with environmental protection.[18] It aims to establish a fully renewable desalination facility using advanced membrane technology that will also help achieve zero liquid discharge. This will be done by establishing downstream industries to turn brine, the waste output produced during desalination, into minerals and metals for commercial use.

Recommendations

The vulnerability of the water sector in the GCC countries to climate change and climate variability is high, and that reality is expected to act as an additional stress on the already heavily stressed water sector in these countries. However, climate change also presents an opportunity to address the water scarcity challenges in the GCC countries while fulfilling their emissions reduction commitments. Desalination will continue to be a major and increasing component of the water supply portfolio in the GCC countries as well as the main interface between the water sector and climate action due to its energy intensity and its air and marine externalities. Therefore, it should be of outmost importance that the GCC countries decouple water from fossil energy by investing in research and development in the area of solar desalination and circular economy, both to mitigate GhG emissions and protect the marine environment.

To achieve a more sustainable water management system and a higher degree of resilience to the impacts of climate change, it is imperative that the GCC countries shift their focus from supply-side management to demand management. This shift can be initiated by the development of integrated water management plans that strongly emphasise demand management and efficiency to close the gap between supply and demand. The strategic aim is to establish efficient and resilient water management systems that can cope with future water challenges and uncertainties. 

 

 

*     Waleed K Al-Zubari is Professor of Water Resources at the Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain. He obtained his PhD in 1990 in the field of groundwater systems mathematical modelling from Colorado State University. His research interests include the water–energy–food security nexus; water resources governance, planning and management; use of numerical models in the management of groundwater systems; and the impacts of climate change on the water sector. He serves as a consultant for many UN (e.g., ESCWA, FAO, UNESCO, UNDP, UNEP), regional (e.g., GCC SG, LAS) and international organisations (e.g., WB, GIZ). He currently serves as the Vice-President of the GCC Water Science and Technology Association and the Chairman of its Scientific Committee.

Suzan M Alajjawi is currently an Environmental Advisor to the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Until the end of 2021, Suzan served as director of the Environmental Policies and Planning Directorate at the Supreme Council for Environment in the Kingdom of Bahrain. She has more than 24 years of experience in issues related to strategic environmental assessments, environmental impact assessments and climate change policy formulation and communication reports preparation. She was a lead negotiator for the Bahraini delegation to UNFCCC annual conferences. Suzan holds a master’s degree in environmental management from the Arabian Gulf University.

[1] Jiménez Cisneros, B. E., T. Oki, N.W. Arnell, G. Benito, J.G. Cogley, P. Döll, T. Jiang, and S. S. Mwakalila, “Freshwater Resources”, In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A — Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Cambridge University Press, 2014), 229–269, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap3_FINAL.pdf; United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA), et al, Arab Climate Change Assessment Report, September 2017, https://www.riccar.org/publications/arab-climate-change-assessment-report-main-report.

[2] A sustainable water management system can be defined as “a system that can supply adequate amount of water with the required quality to the various development sectors, under the lowest financial, economic, social and environmental costs, to achieve maximum socio-economic benefits in terms of use added-value and contribution to the overall national development, on a long term basis.” See Al-Zubari, W. K., and A. A. El-Sadek, “Guide to Integrated Water Resources Management and the Role of Parliamentarians in Achieving Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Kingdom of Bahrain”, UNDP, Bahrain (in Arabic), 2013.

[3] Al-Zubari, W. K., and Alajjawi, “Promoting an EU-GCC Climate Change Agenda: Water Security Priorities”, Bussola Institute, 28 September 2020, https://www.bussolainstitute.org/research/promoting-an-eu-gcc-climate-change-agenda-water-security-priorities.

[4] Falkenmark, M, “The Massive Water Scarcity Now Threatening Africa”, Ambio 18 (1989), pp. 112–118.

[5] GCC Statistical Centre, Water Statistics, 2019, https://dp.gccstat.org/en/DataAnalysis.

[6] Generally measured in per capita renewable water resources. Falkenmark, M., “The Massive Water Scarcity Now Threatening Africa”.

[7] Al-Alawi, J., and Abdulrazzak, M. J. “Water in the Arabian Peninsula: Problems and Perspectives”, In Water in the Arab World, Perspectives and Prognoses, eds. Rogers, P, and Lydon (Division of Applied Sciences, Harvard University, 1994). Renewable groundwater refers to water that develops in the alluvial deposits along the main wadis (channels) and the flood plains of drainage basins. It is recharged by rainfall. Non-renewable groundwater or fossil groundwater develops in deep geologic layers and stored groundwater that is thousands of years old, with negligible rates of recharge on the human time-scale.

[8] Al-Zubari, W., Abdulaziz Al-Turbak, Walid Zahid, Khalid Al-Ruwis, Ali Al-Tkhais, Ibrahim Al-Muataz, Ahmed Abdelwahab, Ahmed Murad, Meshari Al-Harbi, and Zaher Al-Sulaymani, “An Overview of the GCC Unified Water Strategy (2016–2035)”, Desalination and Water Treatment 81 (June 2017): 1–18, doi: https://doi.org/10.5004/dwt.2017.21386

[9] Al-Zubari, W., et al, “An Overview of the GCC Unified Water Strategy”.

[10] The thermal desalination technology in current use is energy-intensive, claiming at alarming rates a sizable portion of energy resources. Since energy resources are the main source of income for the GCC countries, their use in desalination impacts these countries’ oil export capabilities and hence their economies. The majority of the desalination plants are cogeneration power desalination plants (CDPD), with energy costs representing about 85% of their running costs.

[11] Al-Zubari, W. K., and Alajjawi, “Promoting an EU-GCC Climate Change Agenda”.

[12] Non-revenue water (NRW) comprises three components: real losses (leakage), apparent losses (metering inaccuracies, data-handling errors, and theft) and unbilled authorised consumption (exemptions).

[13] Rizk, Z. E., “Determining the Sources of Nitrate Pollution of the Liwa Quaternary Aquifer in the United Arab Emirates”, In Proceedings of the WSTA 11th Gulf Water Conference, 2014, pp: 120–136, https://wstagcc.org/WSTA-11th-Gulf-Water-Conference/WSTA-11th-Gulf-Water-Conference-Proceedings.pdf

[14] UNESCWA, et al. 2017, Arab Climate Change Assessment Report.

[15] Al-Zubari, et al, “An Overview of the GCC Unified Water Strategy”.

[16] The Climate Change National Communication report comprises four sections: Greenhouse Gases (GhG) Inventory, GhG Mitigation, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. See chapter 2 of the following reports: Supreme Council for Environment, Bahrain,” Third National Communication”, 2020; Environment Public Authority, Kuwait, “Second National Communication”, 2019; Ministry of Environment, Qatar, “Initial National Communication”, 2011; Ministry of Environment & Climate Affairs, Oman, “Second National Communication”, 2019; Ministry of Energy & Industry, UAE, “Fourth National Communication”, 2018; and Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia, “Third National Communication”, 2016.

[17] NDCs are national climate plans highlighting climate actions, including climate-related targets for GhG emission reductions. These plans include policies and measures governments aim to implement in response to climate change and as a contribution to achieving the global targets set out in the PA.

[18] NEOM Website, “ENOWA, ITOCHU and Veolia Sign MOU to Build New Generation of Desalination Plant Powered by 100% Renewable Energy in NEOM”, 16 June 2022, https://www.neom.com/en-us/newsroom/build-generation-of-desalination-plant.