- 03 Dec 2021
Lebanon: On the Brink of a New Civil War?
(This event is organised by MEI Political Economy research cluster.)
Abstract
For a few years after the Arab revolutions of 2011, Lebanon appeared like a paradox – the historically fragile state of the Middle East that used to be the buffer zone for regional competition had been relatively immune to the turmoil that other countries like Syria or Egypt, were facing. The assumption was that the people of Lebanon still had vivid memories of a 15-year civil war and scars from it were visible on Beirut buildings. However, since 2019, the country has faced a financial crisis that the World Bank ranks among the three worst in the last two centuries. The fall of the Lebanese currency threw many citizens under the poverty threshold. This economic collapse was enabled and aggravated by the inability of the political elite to satisfy the demands of international organisations and governments involved in the recovery plan. Furthermore, the massive explosion at Beirut Port in August 2020 also crystallised the deep divides between political factions, reminiscent of the civil war’s era.
In this context, the panel will explore the drivers of the ongoing Lebanese crisis, the consequences for the country and for the region as well. It will tackle the question of sectarian politics in Lebanon and the influence of Hizballah in the current situation, alongside identifying the role of external powers in preventing the collapse of Lebanon.
This public talk will be conducted online via Zoom on Friday, 3 December 2021, from 5pm to 6pm (SGT). All are welcome to participate. This event is free, however, registration is compulsory. Successful registrants will receive a confirmation email with the Zoom details closer to the date of the event.
Image caption: A helicopter puts out a fire at the scene of an explosion at the port of Lebanon’s capital Beirut on August 4, 2020. Photo by STR via AFP
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About the Speakers
Director, Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs
American University of Beirut
[Moderator] Dr Jean-Loup Samaan
Senior Research Fellow, MEI NUS
Dr Joseph Bahout is Associate Professor of Practice and Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut.
He is also a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington DC, a professor at Sciences-Po Paris, and a consultant to the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
[Moderator] Dr Jean-Loup Samaan is a Senior Research Fellow specialising in Middle East strategic affairs, with a particular focus on Israel–Hezbollah conflict and the evolution of the Gulf security system. Prior to joining MEI, he held various positions in the policy sector. He worked as a visiting scholar with the RAND Corporation (2007-2008) and as an advisor at the directorate for strategic affairs of the French Ministry of Defense (2008-2011). He then gained extensive experience in the domain of military education and training, first as a deputy director for the Middle East Faculty of the NATO Defense College (2011-2016) and as an associate professor in strategic studies with the UAE National Defense College (2016-2021).
Dr Samaan has written four books as well as various articles for academic and policy journals. He holds a PhD in political science from University of Paris La Sorbonne (2009) and an accreditation to supervise research (2017) by the doctoral school of Sciences Po, Paris.
