The Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile storage units put an end to a decade of speculation of an imminent pre-emptive attack. In recent days, these rumours resurfaced following the Iaea’s decision to condemn Iran for its lack of compliance with its non-proliferation commitments. Altogether, this significant development will likely derail the US–Iran nuclear talks, scheduled to take place in Oman this Sunday.

In the short term, the pressing question is how Iran will retaliate, and to what extent the US administration will support Israel’s defence. The scale of the Israeli operation appears larger than during the previous crises in April and October 2024. As such, it is plausible that the Iranian regime will feel compelled to escalate further—potentially targeting Israeli cities this time.

The Trump administration now finds itself in a challenging position. The US State Department stated that it was not involved in the Israeli operation, and that Washington’s current priority is the safety and security of its military personnel and citizens across the Middle East. If reports are accurate, US President Trump will likely feel cornered by Israel’s unilateral decision to conduct such an attack. In the longer term, the nuclear crisis could be far from over. At best, the Israeli air campaign may have damaged parts of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but now, it could trigger the regime in Tehran to end its ambivalent approach to the nuclear programme and seek a full and open militarisation.

– Jean-Loup Samaan, Senior Research Fellow

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