By Rana B Khoury and Koh Choon Hwee  

On 28 April 2011, the Middle East Institute connected via video conference with the University of Arizona’s Southwest Initiative for the Study of Middle East Conflicts (SISMEC), where a panel of experts convened to discuss the current political situation in Oman. The esteemed panelists included David Dunford, the Former US Ambassador to Oman and current Adjunct Instructor at the University of Arizona; Dr JE Peterson, a historian, political analyst, published scholar on the Gulf states and Former Advisor to the Government of Oman; as well as Johann Chacko, an MA candidate and research assistant for SISMEC, and former open source analyst for the private sector. The panelists furnished audiences in Singapore and in Tucson with a rich and complex understanding of Oman’s history and geopolitics, and the current protests there.

Dr JE Peterson began by noting that the 2011 protests in Oman came as a bit of a surprise, considering its usual pacifistic state. Indeed, not since 1972 have major demonstrations occurred in Oman. According to Dr Peterson, the protesters do not want a new ruler or the toppling of the regime. Rather, they are protesting a lack of economic opportunities, dismal job prospects, the corruption and accumulated wealth of the elite, and a lack of representation in government.

Sultan Qaboos, the ruler of Oman, reacted by dismissing about a dozen high officials and cabinet ministers, and promising to increase social benefits and create jobs. However, Peterson was skeptical about the prospect of real change being brought about by the Sultan’s measures. Oman is not as wealthy as other Gulf states, and there are no opportunities for job creation. Further the official dismissals were of people distant from the Sultan and not members of his family. There is also considerable concern about the 70-year old Sultan’s successor, as he has no direct heirs and has not articulated a succession plan. Although Peterson noted that the unrest will not go much further, the future remains clouded and the people’s grievances will continue indefinitely.

Ambassador Dunford analyzed Oman’s regional and foreign policy. He emphasized Oman’s uniqueness derived from distinctive cultural traditions, African and Asian influences, a proud seafaring tradition, and memories of empire stretching from Pakistan to East Africa. This uniqueness has led to Oman’s independent and pragmatic foreign and regional policy. For example, Oman hosts a joint desalination plant for the Arabs and Israelis, and maintains a military relationship with the US and membership in the GCC, while working closely with Iran – most visibly in joint military exercises. Therefore, Ambassador Dunford contended that Oman could act as a bridge between Iran and the West, alluding to Oman’s intervention in the case of the three US hikers who had wandered across the Iraqi-Iranian border. Further, Oman’s relations with Asia are strengthening, as its economic security is tied to the Indian Ocean literal states and to India, China, and, increasingly, Singapore.

Johann Chacko reiterated Oman’s geopolitical function in the Arabian Peninsula and Indian Ocean contexts. From the 17^th century onwards, Oman was a dominant maritime power in the Indian Ocean. Although its power decreased in the second half of the 20^thcentury, it is now regaining its importance as a strategic and economic island of stability.  For instance, Oman’s defense ties with non-Arab states are growing, as it simultaneously steps back from the GCC’s security focus on Iran. Oman is also re-asserting its maritime role by initiating major manufacturing and deep water projects.

Chacko also addressed Oman’s labor problem. Noting that Oman’s development strategy relies on foreign labor and management, he warned of the ‘youth bulge’ and the grievances of unskilled and unemployed Omanis.

During the question and answer session, Professor Leila Hudson in Arizona invited Professor Michael Bonine to join the panelists at the table. Prof Bonine is head of the Near Eastern Studies Department at the University of Arizona, and his quiet presence definitely lent support to this inaugural event, and bodes well for increased cooperation between both institutions. In conclusion, the inaugural MEI-SISMEC video conference news seminar was a true success. Audiences both in Singapore and Tucson benefited from the informative talks by the panelists, and they fielded many probing questions that led to more interesting discussion.