Abstract

It is now over four months since the Qadhafi regime finally collapsed but progress towards normality in Libya seems painfully slow. The key issue is security for there is still no effective national army or police force and security is in the hands of the militias with all the dangers of fragmentation that that implies. Arbitrary arrest and imprisonment are commonplace and, outside the main population areas, remnants of former regime forces seem to be imposing a reign of terror. The National Transitional Council’s new government still seems largely ineffective, even if the oil sector is slowly returning to normal, but even here disputes over control threaten national unity. Former regime officials now in the service of the new authorities, are constantly challenged. Why has this been the outcome to Libya’s unexpected civil war and what would a reasonable prognosis be?