- 27 Apr 2015
Iraq – when will we see some light at the end of the tunnel?
Abstract:
In 2013, just as Iraq was beginning to enjoy the fruits of an economic boom, the fragile political and social consensus that had been forged by the US to end the sectarian civil war of 2006-07 began to fray, as first the Anbar tribes, and then other Sunni communities in central and north Iraq began to rise up against the government in Baghdad. This protest movement helped to provide an opening for the Islamic State movement to return to Iraq from Syria, first taking Anbar province, and then in June 2014 Iraq’s second largest city Mosul and most of the territory to the north and west of Baghdad in a week-long blitzkrieg. In August 2014, Haider Al Abadi was named the new Iraqi Prime Minister, and he has consciously marketed himself as a conciliatory figure. He manages to continue to enjoy the support of the US and Iran, a delicate balancing act to say the least. But the military campaign against the Islamic State has regained only small amounts of territory thus far, and Iraq’s economy is in dire straits. This public lecture will examine Iraq’s political, security and economic prospects over the near term, and what this means for regional and international security and stability.
About the Speakers
President and CEO
Iraq Advisory Group (Dubai)
Dr Norman Ricklefs has worked in Iraq for a decade. He served in Iraq from 2005 to 2010 with the Australian and US governments. Dr Ricklefs served as a branch chief providing analytical support to the commanding general Coalition Forces during the period of sectarian civil war in 2006; then as political advisor to the Australian commanding general Iraq and Afghanistan in 2007; as advisor to the deputy head of the Iraqi Defence Ministry during the battle of Basrah in 2008; and finally as senior advisor to the Iraqi Minister of Interior from 2009-2010 during the period of transition as US forces withdrew from the cities and Iraq held its national election. Dr Ricklefs worked and traveled all over Iraq in his official duties. For his service in Iraq, Dr Ricklefs was awarded the US Department of Defense’s Outstanding Civilian Service medal, the US Department of Defense’s Commander’s Public Service medal and the Operational Service medal with clasp from the Australian Department of Defence.
After leaving government service in 2011, Dr Ricklefs founded a consultancy and lobbying group in Dubai called Iraq Advisory Group and has been advising and lobbying on behalf of the oil and gas sector, banking sector, defense and security industry and also advising the US Government and Congress. IAG is mostly focused on lobbying the highest levels of the Iraqi Government. For example, IAG was responsible for preventing the expulsion of the foreign private security companies in 2012, it has negotiated and supported several large US defense deals with Iraq, and in 2014 successfully negotiated a joint venture on behalf of the Iraqi Ministry of Transport.
Dr Ricklefs has a PhD in history. Prior to his government service he taught history and philosophy at university level and worked as an archaeologist and historian – conducting fieldwork in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Egypt and publishing on the Middle East during the Roman period.
