“Regional Balance in the Middle East? The Role of Iran and Turkey”: A Summary By Faeza Abdurazak

Professor Ataur Rahman, Senior Visiting Research Fellow at the Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore, and distinguished Professor of Dhaka University, delivered a lecture entitled “Regional Balance in the Middle East? The Role of Iran and Turkey,” on 7 January 2011. Professor Rahman focused on four issues: 1) complexities of power in the Middle East, 2) the evolving regional balance of power in the Middle East, 3) the main drivers in this new balance of power in the region, and 4) a prediction of thefuture stability of the region, particularly the role of the United States in it.

Professor Rahman provided a new understanding of the geopolitical reality Middle East that has been evolving. He explained how Saudi Arabia and Egypt, traditional power-holders in the Middle East (other than Israel), have shaped the geopolitical order of the region, and how the game is changing today with new, prominent players like Iran and Turkey. Professor Rahman expressed interest in how the shift in the balance of power is changing the Middle East, and saw the involvement of the United States in the region as ‘obsessive’.

According to Professor Rahman, the main drivers in this new balance of power in the region are Iran and Turkey. Iran’s location, resources, ideology and weaponry are important factors in making it a big player in the region’s politics. Iran spans three of the world’s most volatile regions and hosts some of the most vital shipping lanes for oil. Economically, Iran is one of the world’s largest and most valuable properties, rich with oil and natural gas. It holds some 10 percent of the world’s oil reserves, and is OPEC’s second largest oil producer. Iran also has the world’s second largest reserves of natural gas. Its assets give the country a strong leverage and political leeway globally. As such, Iran has the potential to help stabilize or destabilize the whole Euro-Asian region.

Turkey has also become another key player in Middle East politics today. Its increasing willingness to play an assertive role in the region without undermining its European identity and links, as well as its new Islamist orientation under Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), has given rise to a new Turkey in the region. Turkey is today playing a closer and more assertive role in regional policies by deepening its relations with Syria, Iraq and especially Iran, and lending its powerful voice to the cause of Palestine. In fact, Turkey now filters cooperation with the US and EU through the ‘prism of its regional priorities realigning its position in the neighborhood’ in a self-confident, autonomous and assertive way– not as proxy of western powers.

To conclude, Professor Rahman explored the implications of the changes in the regional balance. Iran’s nuclear program continues to be one of the important fuses that may detonate into an all-out war between Iran and Israel, with US support for Israel. A related fuse is the likelihood of a ‘second round’ war between Israel and Hezbollah – a radical non-state actor that showed its military power in its 2006 inconclusive war with Israel. He also contended that an Iran that opens up and abides by international rules is a possibility, while smaller Arab states (GCC) as well as Saudi Arabia want to see the continuity of US presence in the region, and US protection.